AWTK: Is the boom back?

[Cone Cat]

Is the end of the "recession" upon us?

I've been hearing from a lot of our customers that they are getting back to full steam ahead with works and projects around town. Steel fabricators, builders, contractors, tradies and so on are ramping up and placing big orders for gear while other customers who are still quiet atm are signing big contracts/works due to start up very soon, November being a common start date for several projects according to the grape vine around town and in W.A.

Our own figures which where down by up to 40% over the past few months have rocketed back up to the same numbers we where doing during the boom. Once again, we are run off our feet with the number of orders and customers coming in to buy gear.

The reserve bank is talking about interest rates rises in the near future not to mention the big Gorgon LPG deal being struck out as we speak.
Everything going on around from what I can see indicates that we are coming out of this current "recession".

How is everybody else seeing it from their professions? are you seeing signs of the current recession coming to an end? Light at the end of the tunnel?

[Barfridge]

We are down about 75% on this time last year. Construction may be up, but non-gold mining is still in a slump

[Taylor]

Yes, there's a Tsunami of work on the horizon so large it will eclipse our peak.
I've booked my breakdown for April 14th.

[Yagadan]

Yeah some parts of mining are picking up again but general unskilled work is still in a big slump. Hundreds of people are still applying for one job.

[Taylor]

Yeah some parts of mining are picking up again but general unskilled work is still in a big slump. Hundreds of people are still applying for one job.

I wouldn't expect that to kick off until closer to the start dates for these projects.

Chin up.

[Yagadan]

I wouldn't expect that to kick off until closer to the start dates for these projects.

Chin up.

Ah...yes?

I wasn't disagreeing with you..

[rcradical]

No where near it.

Markets are getting there though, still a long long way from a boom.

/generalisation

[Taylor]

Sorry, I missed your optimism entirely.

[panic]

i'm in communications, and my calendar is booked solid for six months. wouldn't say the boom is back though, its a lot tougher out there now.

[SzyCo]

Yeah some parts of mining are picking up again but general unskilled work is still in a big slump. Hundreds of people are still applying for one job.

We get 3 resume's on average a day of people appling for work as a grease monkey. Although our average rate of pay has gone down. This time of year is always slower, but as I go from shop to shop, I didn't notice any slump at all. Beauty of my industry is everyone still needs their car fixed..

[Cone Cat]

Poll added. Sorry in the delay in adding the poll, I'm up to my neck in customers!

A lot of people have said that any lead out of the recession would start in mining and construction. That is what I am seeing and hearing at the moment. Eventually the demands from these industries will flow on to other industries.

Recruitment is starting to ramp up for trades in our industries. Several out of work ticketed welders/boilies we where aware of as looking for work are all now employed and hunting for more workers as well as doing overtime.

It's all definetely a good sign that's for sure!

[Cip]

we're booming, but we're in gold

(also getting over a hundred applications for each position that's created)

[Shady7/8]

We're still quiet here... Big downturn from last year. Recent periods all the same though. Some major projects coming in but they're international.
Still not enough skilled technicians available though...

[Waikikablukar]

We are down from last year but still ahead of where we were 2 years ago, things are heading up but I dont think they will hit the same heights as last year for another couple in Iron Ore.

[mcmurray]

Business here has stayed constant for the last 18 months. We were never affected by the recession. That's military contracts though.

[Creme]

Like most people I deal with, we aren't really busy. However its been up and down here for a few months; we have just enough work trickling thru to keep most of the machines running. All overtime and weekend work has been stopped.

There are definitely signs that things are picking up, bigger jobs are starting to come out. I also have a letter here today from BlueScope stating they are going to start gouging us again in lieu of the increasing demand for steel.

[Veefore]

I will certainly be in the minority here but I don't think we have even begun the recession proper yet. There was a reaction here to what was happening overseas that saw a lot of nervousness from the business sector and led to a lot of "wait and see". This is predominantly what we saw in our downturn.

Historically, we haven't really felt the effect of recessions until 18 months to 2 years after the rest of the world and we are only just coming up to that sort of time frame.

There seems to be two differing views coming out of America at the moment. One is that the recession is nearly over and that the stimulus packages used by all the western governments staved off a serious recession. This is the message that everyone is trying to promote, from governments to businesses in the hopes that everyone will forget the recession and everything will just go back to how it was before the GFC.

The other view is that the worst is yet to come. The stimulus packages only delayed the inevitable and that what we are seeing is what they call a "ski jump recovery" where we get a bump in the economy from all the money that the government has pumped into it but where the fall after the free money runs out will be precipitous.

Not only that, but governments have spent money that they haven't even earned yet, leading to massive deficits for years to come. These deficits will affect government spending in coming years and with the government being one of the biggest spenders in an economy this will have a major impact.

Here in WA alone we are seeing a government that is raising costs to the populace dramatically while simultaneously attempting to slash spending. Effectively taking millions of dollars out of the economy to pay back debt.

There are scatterings of reports coming out of the US (The Street.com, Wall Street Journal etc.) that say the companies that caused the GFC are still doing what they were doing when the shit hit the fan except now they are doing it without fear because they know that if their company is big enough the government will bail them out. This is also starting to apply across other sectors now too. There are even reports of some of the larger financial institutions having trouble finding things to invest in and they are starting to look at sub-prime mortgages again. Executive bonuses, one of the things identified as a contributor to the GFC have also begun to skyrocket again with CEO's of companies making multi million dollar losses getting 8 figure bonuses.

[Commander Keen]

Boom time for me will be January 2010 where Rio will start standing down it's fleet for major rebuilds. We have 63 730 and 830 module changouts happening next year and double that the year after.

Yeah, boom baby!

[Cbr1k]

One of my customers has announced $400 spend on new equipment next year.

[chief wiggum]

One of my customers has announced $400 spend on new equipment next year.

seriously? $400? wow, dont hold back on the spending