"Once you can have people more frightened of disorder than tyranny, it enables you to do almost anything you like so far as legislation is concerned." Chief Judge Antoinette Kennedy, 26/3/2010.
"The State must declare the child to be the most precious treasure of the people. As long as the government is perceived as working for the benefit of the children, the people will happily endure almost any curtailment of liberty and almost any deprivation." Adolph Hitler, Mein Kampf
Well that leaves you with a nice fuzzy warm feeling inside.
Buy my Leyland P76 - Anything but ordinary
http://www.gumtree.com.au/s-ad/balca...-v8/1000650942
Originally Posted by Murley
talk about all doom and gloom. fuck if this guy had his way we'd all just slit our wrists and put our heads in an oven.
So is it just scaremongering to bring the market down?
The guy basically said he'd do anything to make a buck...
The guy might be a c*nt, but he's a c*nt that knows how to make money.
That's the conflict of trading. You're buying something that someone else doesn't want, which means that you also disagree with the seller's reason for selling. Later, you sell something to a buyer, which means that your perception of that item/stock is that it is no longer worth owning. But you'll take money from someone else for it.
If this guy was in Australia then I'd be on the phone to him straight away. He might be the 2011 version of Gordon Gecko, but he knows how to make money out of a situation that is costing other people their income. Good for him, bad for others.
As he said very clearly and honestly, he and the other traders don't give a damn what governments do. They are trading to make a profit for themselves and their clients. Anyone and everyone else doesn't matter. He's not doing it to serve the community. He's not doing it to help his country. He's doing it solely for himself and the handful of people that he represents. No-one else matters.
He makes money out of markets that are moving somewhere, whether it be up or down. Right now it's going down, so he'll be making certain moves that are very profitable. On the flip side, if the market was skyrocketing upwards then he would also be making money out of that. But, markets move downwards a lot quicker and more drastically than they do when the move upward, so a downturn will be more profitable to him than a gradual upturn.
His brutal honesty will be offensive to most people, but he is honest. He's not sugar coating things. He's not looking at things through rose-coloured glasses. He's not kidding himself or anyone else. He is a blunt, clinical business person who is capitalising on any circumstance that he can, regardless of who else loses out.
He's taking the cliche corporate attitude. The underlying fundamental objective of a company is to make money for its shareholders. That's it. As we're seeing with Coles at the moment, if it means destroying the livelihoods of thousands of farmers then so be it. Welcome to corporate power; it's a nasty bitch.
If you're one of his clients then you win. If you're not one of his clients then you lose. Unfortunately, the non-clients vastly outnumber the clients, so what he says and does will definitely not be endearing to almost all of us.
I look forward to Deej's comments. Someone get him in here ASAP.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8y6DJAeolo
"The point is, ladies and gentleman, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good.
Greed is right, greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.
Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind.
And greed, you mark my words, will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA.
Thank you very much."
*Disclosure: I don't like the current market downturn, but I am just one molecule in a very large ocean. My shareholdings are currently worth around $75,000 less than what they were at the start of the year. I was supposed to be cashing in and buying two taxi plates about now, but it looks like that's off the menu for at least another year. I don't like this, but I can't control it. I might even get a nasty margin call, and I'm making moves to prepare for that. All I can do is be impartial and make decisions without excessive emotion. However, if anyone has a time machine that can take me back to February 2011 then I would indeed be extremely excited.
One owner. Only driven gently on Sundays. Sold to best offer. First to see will buy. Reward offered for safe return. Coming soon to a cinema near you. Available for a limited time only.
My waterbed broke this morning. Oh, I don't have a waterbed. Bugger.
I guess the counter point is that traders like him bring markets down, accelerate and aggreviate a downward spiral. Hence why tools like short trading gets banned, or algerithmic trading gets so much scrutiny.
--
Even if the guy comes like a c*nt, he has taken a position and he is stick it to it, I would do the same, not like I have any assets to protect, and not much capital to trade. Point is, people have been warned about a possible recession for years, all in the news, not like the last time that there wasn't much warming. Protect yourself now...
The euro is done as far as I'm concern, it was never a good idea, and fear will not let a bandaid of rescue packages stick.
70% greek 2 year yield... lol
Last edited by Xuaxace; 28-09-2011 at 04:31 AM.
Is the trader from hell actually a hoax?
http://www.news.com.au/business/get-...-1226148440353
Not a hoax, but perhaps an idiot.
An interesting aside: The Great American Bubble Machine | Politics News | Rolling Stone
"Once you can have people more frightened of disorder than tyranny, it enables you to do almost anything you like so far as legislation is concerned." Chief Judge Antoinette Kennedy, 26/3/2010.
"The State must declare the child to be the most precious treasure of the people. As long as the government is perceived as working for the benefit of the children, the people will happily endure almost any curtailment of liberty and almost any deprivation." Adolph Hitler, Mein Kampf
'governments don't run the world , goldman sachs runs the world '. bet that guy just lost his job .
The quants in the big (and medium) banks rule the stock markets now. What Xuaxace calls "algerithmic trading", making a few thousand trades a second.
A lot of it is based on the late 90s/early naughties AI PhD work into reinforcement learning and approximation complexity. A couple of the best quants in the business were edumucated right here in Perth. One used to blat around UWA and surrounds in the late 80s on a RZ250 ...
These algos thrive in unstable markets, like we have now. The guys doing this work don't approach it with concerns about morality or even profits per se. They are competing to tweak the best algos, some of which have been out there in the markets learning for 15 years. Making money is only one measure of how well they are working.
Needless to say, this AI has no notion of being a cunt or not being one.
Just like "guns don't kill people, people kill people", "trading algos don't fuck markets, people fuck markets"
Like the Cybermen of the stock-trading world. They're not malevolent. They're just involute.
One of my favourite nutbags loved this trader!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sl9XPF8dtfw
Buy my Leyland P76 - Anything but ordinary
http://www.gumtree.com.au/s-ad/balca...-v8/1000650942
+1
I loves me some Alex Jones.
He's deluded if he thinks treasury bonds are going to be a win. They're paying some shitty yield like 2% over 10 years when measured in US dollars which are being devalued by far more than that per year.
Other than that, I agree with what he says. The financial system as we currently know it, is fucked. There's no coming back from that.
With that knowledge in mind...
- most currencies are being devalued in a race to the bottom. so, get out of cash and into real assets - or a currency that is currently under-valued (china, anyone?). they will hold value, most currency won't.
- if your job is safe, debt is currently quite cheap. as well as the interest rate, you need to take inflation into account. if inflation is running at 10%, and your interest rate is 7%, then you're actually getting ahead if you turn money into real assets today on credit, rather than save for something. conversely, if you're only getting 2-3% interest in a bank account and inflation is 10%, you're going backwards by 7% pa in real world purchasing power of your money
Just on that, take quoted inflation figures with several buckets of salt. The inflation rate reported by the US federal reserve, and probably our own bank (though i haven't looked into it that much as australia is small fry) doesn't actually provide a useful measure of inflation.
They've been taking items out of the "basket of goods" if they are considered to be "outliers" due to a spike (such as the cost of energy a few years ago).
The "basket of goods" they are using is therefore not representative of the rising cost of living (i.e., inflation) in the real world.
stuff
Whenever the inflation rate is mentioned here they remove fuel and food from the basket, then say there's no inflation.
^^ exactly. Its bs.
Quoted inflation (in australia, for example): 2-3%
(numbers pulled out of arse, but conservative for recent years)
Cost of rent/property rise: 10% pa
Cost of fuel: ~10%+ pa
Cost of food, who knows, but 200 bucks buys fuck all now.
For most people, fuel + food + housing = most of their pay.
So the real world "shit i get taken out of my disposable income" is rising at WAY more than 2-3%.
stuff
The majority of the people are quite perceptive and deep down realise something is wrong. The reason we have so much instability is that they are afraid, or don't know what to do to store their precious savings/investments as it gets eroded away.
Stories of doom and blame abound in volatility. GS could not make a dime if everyone held , they make nice little profits on Algo pip trades due to loading buy/sell sides and shifting the herd.
If markets fail , we are fucked, period. No supply line logistics to speak of , bank insolvency taking savings with it , and paralysed Governments.
Then again ,if GS IS the Anti-Christ as all the alarmists put it , then we have nothing to worry about. Short trades cannot go naked , so sending the price to zero of a security dissolves the market therefore disallowing the money flow and disabling the GS traders to close out their trades.
Nah, the reason we have so much instability is because we have BIG hedge fund managers making big bets (with other people's money) and shorts on the stock price to manipulate it.
If they win, they win.
If they lose, they get bailed out by the US government.
The average mum and dad investor or small player doesn't make any difference at all.
edit:
http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaTo...25/zu0wDv1LJ4k
13 minute mark in particular...
Scary fact: JP morgan have 78tn worth of gold derivatives on their books. Which is 1.5x the world's GDP. HSBC have the other 20% of the world's gold derivatives.
As far as I am led to believe , GLD derivs cannot be naked [I hope] , and commercial lease rates are a different beast and is the one to be generally taken seriously. Contango sometimes occurs with these middle market trades , but usually works itself out in the next months settlement period.
The gold market is extremely complex , and sometimes the authors of these reports miss a few of the nuts and bolts that make up a market/settlement.
Silver on the other hand is still an unanswered question , but I suggest that naked forward trades are hopefully minimal
Avoiding crisis, Bank of England takes speedy action - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
The monetary policy committee at the central bank has various weapons in its armoury, the most obvious being to cut official interest rates. But since the credit crunch took hold in 2008, the bank has slashed rates six times from 5 per cent to just half a per cent - the lowest in the Bank of England's 315-year history. With that firepower all but exhausted, The Bank of England pulled the trigger on a much more controversial policy - quantitative easing or, QE for banker easy speak. For the rest of us it's simply called printing money.
Chancellor George Osborne is digging his heals in and departments will suffer average cuts of 25 per cent. Every pound of the $120 billion worth of electronic money being created over the next four months will buy a bank bond and the recipient will deposit that money in a UK bank. Bank funding is therefore automatically boosted by $120 billion.
The US Federal Reserve has so far pumped $2.2 trillion of new money into the American economy in two tranches. Governor Ben Bernanke has been more targeted in his spending. He's leap frogged the banks and gone straight to the mortgage and corporate bond market. When the Bank of England last engaged in quantitative easing in 2009, it pumped $320 billion worth of new money into the economy.It will be at least six months if not longer before any real effect can be properly gauged. By then Greece may have been forced to default on its ever-growing debts. No-one's really sure how the dominos would then fall across the continent and beyond. Another round of QE is not out of the question.i hadnt heard this term before so i had to look it up and found an irony- this field of math's nickname for their list of model inputs is the greeks.
It seems to me that the wiki authors quoted key idea of 'eliminating risk' is a misinterpretation of what assumptions in a model mean, which is to limit. 'The stock price follows a geometric Brownian motion with constant drift and volatility'- this assumes the model is operating within an infinite sea ie: feedback between the system and the model is zero and can only be true as the size of the transactions approaches zero. that statement also divorces stock price from the real world (where nuclear reactors disappear into fault lines or other unforseen events).The Black–Scholes model of the market for a particular stock makes the following explicit assumptions:
There is no arbitrage opportunity (i.e. there is no way to make a riskless profit).
It is possible to borrow and lend cash at a known constant risk-free interest rate.
It is possible to buy and sell any amount, even fractional, of stock (this includes short selling).
The above transactions do not incur any fees or costs (i.e. frictionless market).
The stock price follows a geometric Brownian motion with constant drift and volatility.
The underlying security does not pay a dividend.[5]
From these assumptions, Black and Scholes showed that “it is possible to create a hedged position, consisting of a long position in the stock and a short position in the option, whose value will not depend on the price of the stock.”[6]
The key idea behind the equation is that one can perfectly hedge the option by buying and selling the underlying asset in just the right way and consequently “eliminate risk".
Merton and Scholes received the 1997 Nobel Prize in Economics (The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel) for their work.
Last edited by g0zer; 10-10-2011 at 11:39 AM.
^^ you can't eliminate risk.
All you can do is pass it on to someone else.
like, for example a hedge fund manager who is dealing with client's money - taking high risk bets with zero downside for himself.
or, a mum and dad sucker ("investor") who is going to be left behind by the nanosecond traders who will get out far in advance of any appreciable stock slide that the small volume guys will have to bear.
the modern stock market really is screwed up.
imho, there are a few things that need to happen
- no naked shorts (I believe this has already been banned?)
- some level of accountability for fund managers - at the moment because it is not their money, there is zero downside to taking massively risky bets on really risky CDOs
- a minimum stock "hold" time. this BS with trading in milliseconds or nanosections has precisely ZERO to do with the real world market, and causes volatility that disadvantages the the smaller investors who can't afford multi-billion dollar automated trading setups to beat the market.
To those who think that we're anywhere near the bottom right now - the consumer credit bubble is the next thing to burst - way too much cheap credit in the US that is un-backed and going to start going belly up...
stuff
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