The Stockmarket

[Hewie]

Hewies quote from Bell potters is very interesting. The Potter club is known for it's high net worth customer base , so where are THEY going at present?

Will be really keen to hear what those on the the front line of the ASX camp chaos are thinking right now?

THEY ... Are still mostly sitting tight on their money ATM.

[Broms]

THEY ... Are still mostly sitting tight on their money ATM.

Yes. Every recent purchase has been a mistake so far.

[ReCon]

Best bet, short every broker recommendation!

[Scott52]

I've just made this graph of the S&P500 from Jan 1988. This is the last 24 years of the great credit boom that started around the early 80's ... when money became easy to get and the old rules of having a 33% deposit and a savings record for your home loan were thrown out the window as being too risk adverse.

The graph bothers me a bit ... is this about to form the mother of all "triple tops"?

[ReCon]

Posted before I think , but during the GFC1 , many long term chartsters kept saying the real bottom would be 2015/6. If the phases are approx 8 years , then '16 could be the triple top blow- off that is predicted.

If inflation is stagflationary here , and the rest of the planet is still playing in the deflationary cycle , wtf will happen if we get yet another real, large dip? Interest rates are still close to zero in most economies , bond yields are shite , and if divvy yields go to hell , where does the market go?

[Scott52]

I've held the view that after the big fall in September 2008 and the subsequent market low in March 2009, we'd be in for a long "washout" period similar to the period after the 87 crash. After the 87 crash it took 10 years for the market to pass the high achieved in 1987. In fact the market went back to near post crash levels five years later. Ian Huntley has said the same sort of thing. He's expecting the final washout to be in the next 12 months to form the bottom for the next upswing.

I'm bothered by the fact the last 30 years have been fueled by ever increasing Ponzi scheme like leverage. People have woken up to the fact that with lots of debt comes big risk and a lack of flexibility and freedom. Now countries, corporations and individuals all over the globe are paying down debt and actually saving money again.

I'm thinking the upswing will be an interim bull market within a bear market that's going to be around for a while. The trouble is no one really knows these days. It's a pain trying to predict these futures when your super and wealth portfolio is subjected to such risk.

[Phildo]

Start buying about six months away from the next federal election.

It would be a pretty safe bet that the Australian business world is going to be pretty bloody happy once the current government gets turfed.

Unlike the last election, where uncertainty kept the market flat because no-one knew what the outcome would be, this one is pretty easy to forecast.

[Wedge]

Bump for todays news.
Facebook is going down the crapper pretty quick.
FB - Stock Quote for Facebook - FB Stock price - real time stock quote for Facebook

[peter600]

It's not going down the crapper- it floated and the market has decided its value.

[Phildo]

It's not going down the crapper- it floated and the market has decided its value.

Which is in the crapper.

[peter600]

Not sure what "in the crapper" means.... it appears to be a viable business rated by some at 30 dollars a share...

Brian Wieser, an analyst at US company Pivotal Research Group, said the $US38 list price had been too expensive considering the risks associated with Facebook's brief history and unproven advertising model and the market was now factoring this in.
"There must have been some sober second thoughts about this," Mr Wieser said.
Mr Wieser was first to come out with a "Sell" rating on Facebook's stock on its first day of trading and said his fair “target price” was $US30.


Read more: Facebook's share price plunge 'unsurprising' | News.com.au