The worst is over?

ByfordBlade · 17-03-2009, 10:29 PM

I noticed an article this week in the paper where a boffin in the USA has said he is noticing a few green roots appearing in terms of business confidence and he feels the recession is over and things will move forward. My company has never been busier due to the small/medium players in resources and land development ramping up over the last few weeks.

To the people who play the markets, are you feeling a change or believe the negative media that the worst is still to come? I've literally put it all on the line and sunk some serious cash into the potential I think is out there. I'd be interested in the views of others so if you tell me you told me so I can look up this thread and agree you did.

optimal · 17-03-2009, 10:37 PM

I think there Is money to be made in resource stocks, (with a bit of homework).

WIGARUS · 17-03-2009, 10:41 PM

hoohoo boy, you just opened a can of worms!

I personally am kind of glad things have slowed down now. I'm in residential building and it means that trades are a lot easier to get, we can wind their rates down and things happen when I want them to. Sales have slowed, but not stopped and not slowed enough to hurt us.

And, it means that anyone who's fucked me in the last few years when the trades only wanted the cream jobs for ridicuous money can get fucked if they are looking for work from me and I LOVE getting those phone calls

[edit] I don't know anything about the stock market, but this is kinda related?

Pips · 17-03-2009, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by optimal

I think there Is money to be made in resource stocks, (with a bit of homework).

+1

Rio has gone up something like $20 since Dec, FMG has made some nice gains over the pass few months.

not sure whether the worst is over, lot of financial stocks still are average. I only play the market alittle so i'm in no position to make speculation

Billywhizz · 17-03-2009, 10:56 PM

The shit is yet to hit the fan..................

thro · 17-03-2009, 11:01 PM

IMHO...

Worst is still coming.

Consumer credit bubble is going to burst just like the housing bubble, except being unsecured debt (eg, people's credit cards, used to buy holidays, plasma TVs, etc), there's nothing to re-claim for all the bad debt out there.

This will further fuck over those who have invested in this debt when it is bundled as securities... causing loss, panic selling, further stock devaluation (and thus forced selling to cover margin loans - thus more asset devaluation), etc.

I am not an economist, but i've read a bunch of Schiff's material and believe he has a handle on things...

edit:
Don't get me wrong, I think now is probably the time to be buying - but just don't expect things to turn rosy for at *least* 3-4 years.... the scale of the economic damage we're dealing with here is unprecedented. To assume it will be over quicker than the great depression is being way optimistic, imho.

pauly_ · 17-03-2009, 11:04 PM

should see a few more crashes before all the dead have been brought out.

D'Artagnan · 17-03-2009, 11:15 PM

Another downturn yet to come IMHO. Can't complain about the gains this last week though I sold some too early

D'Art

redfern · 17-03-2009, 11:15 PM

the powers that be will keep trying to persuade the herd its over to stop the "panic" keep the stock market going and people borrowing and also to stop china from pulling their money out.

I sure as shit wouldnt own up to the truth when the consequences are so high.

The market is based on nothing but consumer opinion, so why let that change.

Pips · 17-03-2009, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by D'Artagnan

Another downturn yet to come IMHO. Can't complain about the gains this last week though I sold some too early

D'Art

care to share what you have invested in?

peter600 · 18-03-2009, 12:13 AM

I'm in the market up to my eyeballs. got losses to recover. depressed as.....
Not feeling confident but that's why the game now is trade in and out and run tight stop losses. You can do well, even with big blue chips. I've bought and sold bhp over half a dozen times in the last two months. Health stocks have been smashed in the last few weeks, don't know why but they're due for a run I reckon.... [i mean, they're so boring and recession-proof]
some commentators say we're getting over it. Others are merchants of utter doom.
Truth is probably somewhere in between. They say the bottom is when evryone's totally despondent, maybe we're there then....

thro · 18-03-2009, 12:17 AM

^^ people can be as despondent as they like, if there's more bad financial news on the horizon, its going to force the issue...

ufatbarstard · 18-03-2009, 03:20 AM

The worst is yet to come & its called "uncrystallized" debt.
(the losses that will have, and still have, to be brought to book)
at least as many trillions as already low guesstimates, imo.

or is it the ides of march

jules_1972 · 18-03-2009, 07:24 AM

Yay!!

Aussie $$$$ down you go again!!!

MuNch · 18-03-2009, 07:32 AM

Meh, still goin down here.

Just got word that we will have 50 workers redundant in the next week.

Scoundrel · 18-03-2009, 08:44 AM

Woodside announced yesterday that they are putting on 1000 personnel for some big project up north.

But I still think the big 'bang' is coming...it's going to take a few months for the full effect of the slowdown to filter through to us here in Westralia.

FireStorm · 18-03-2009, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WIGARUS

hoohoo boy, you just opened a can of worms!

I personally am kind of glad things have slowed down now. I'm in residential building and it means that trades are a lot easier to get, we can wind their rates down and things happen when I want them to. Sales have slowed, but not stopped and not slowed enough to hurt us.

And, it means that anyone who's fucked me in the last few years when the trades only wanted the cream jobs for ridicuous money can get fucked if they are looking for work from me and I LOVE getting those phone calls

[edit] I don't know anything about the stock market, but this is kinda related?

Builders have fucked the trades in the ass for years and now the tables have turned for a while. It's nice to see the boys have a win for a little while atleast.

I never work for builders so I don't really care either way.

I don't know if this recession is over or not. Quite frankly I don't care either. I'll continue to do what I do to the high standard I have and I'll never be out of work. You only have something to worry about if your the weakest link at what you do..

peter600 · 18-03-2009, 09:22 AM

there may be worse to come but a lot of shit is already priced into the market....

jules, I don't know why yr happy the dollar's down again- just makes those motorcycle parts more expensive.....

D'Artagnan · 18-03-2009, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pips

care to share what you have invested in?

Sure. Firstly I'm doing options so the underlying stock is not AS important to me.

I'm in ANZ, CBA, FMG(*), DXS, GPT, plus a heap of smaller companies (mainly for shits and giggles).

FMG has me worried and got out of MCW too early. Banks doing well this week as is GPT. Bought these at 0.27c and now trading at 0.51c.

D'Art

(*not advice. do you're own research)

FireStorm · 18-03-2009, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by peter600

there may be worse to come but a lot of shit is already priced into the market....

jules, I don't know why yr happy the dollar's down again- just makes those motorcycle parts more expensive.....

He gets paid in USD. He thinks it's fun to gloat about it, while the rest of us have to deal with a shit conversion rate. It's called the "Im a cunt syndrome".